Five weighted Azraq KRI pillars, each scored 1.00–5.00, combined into an overall risk score R and laid over the rate benchmark. Markets are plotted on two axes — what they cost against what they carry — and R is converted back into a price.
Each pillar is scored 1.00–5.00 on the Azraq scale, where 1 is benign and 5 is severe. The overall risk score R is their weighted sum.
R = 0.30 G + 0.15 W + 0.15 H + 0.20 C + 0.20 M
The preferred route is an expected-cost model. P0 is the tax-exclusive, power-excluded base rate, K the contracted IT kW, and EC the annual expected incremental risk cost — probability-weighted delay, outage, mitigation and currency items.
P_RA = P0 + EC / (12 × K)
Where the evidence cannot carry dollar estimates, an index gives a sensitivity instead. R is rescaled to 0–1 first, so a site at R 1.00 carries no loading and one at R 5.00 carries the full λ.
P_index = P0 × (1 + λ × (R − 1) / 4)
λ is a decision parameter to calibrate against observed insurance, financing or mitigation costs — not a market constant. Confidence is not the inverse of risk: a market can be high risk on strong evidence, or apparently low risk on weak evidence. Queue length is not itself a rent premium; it prices only once the delay is costed.
Move a weight and every downstream number — R, the chart and the price — recalculates. Grid, water and hazard scores come from the benchmark datasets; community and political scores are illustrative and shown in italic.
| Market | Rate | G30% | W15% | H15% | C20% | M20% | Rof 5.00 | Cohort median | vs median |
|---|
G from load-interconnection wait times, normalised 1–10 years onto the 1.00–5.00 scale. W from WRI baseline water stress. H from FEMA National Risk Index. C from the community opposition benchmark. M covers convertibility, repatriation and contract enforceability. Rates are the current mid from the colocation rate benchmark.
Each market by asking rate against its Azraq risk score. The cross-hairs are the cohort medians, splitting the field into four quadrants; the shaded band is one standard deviation either side of the median rate. No curve is fitted — see the note below the chart for why.
Pick a market to inherit its rate and risk score, then override either for a site that is not on the list. The base rate is what the market asks; everything above it is the cost of what the site carries.
Delay is costed as carrying cost on the contracted load at the base rate for the months lost. Mitigation capex is amortised straight-line across the term. Both feed the expected-cost method; the index method is shown alongside for comparison.